IpsosMORILess than a month ago Ipsos MORI had the Tory lead down to 6%.

The ConHome Poll of Polls is now suggesting a Tory majority of over 80.

Most commentators expect a much closer election, however. On Radio 4's Week in Westminster Jackey Ashley, Benedict Brogan, Peter Oborne, Peter Riddell and Steve Richards all predicted a Tory majority of no more than thirty.

Tim Montgomerie