Senior Tories including David Cameron himself now think an end-March election is likelier than not.

I'm not so sure. I don't think today's PBR will play well with voters and I can't see Brown going to see The Queen early if Labour still trails in the polls.

Nonetheless it's probably sensible for all Conservative candidates to plan for a 25th March polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

8.15pm: Before I wrote this post, Iain Martin had come to the same conclusion.