“With unemployment rising faster than anywhere else, and businesses closing every day, these figures are deeply worrying. The government’s endless announcements and summits are commanding neither public confidence at home nor confidence abroad. And it’s difficult to see how we’ll get that confidence with a Prime Minister who blames everyone else for the mess we’re in and refuses to acknowledge any mistakes. We need urgent action to get credit flowing again and to help the innocent victims of the recession. Britain’s families and businesses need a government that will get the public finances under control, set out clear and sensible plans for the future, and restore confidence so our economy can recover.”
Interviewed earlier on BBC News 24, CentreRight’s Andrew Lilico (who had accurately predicted a 1.5% contraction on this morning’s Today programme) warned that the total peak-to-trough loss of GDP would be 6-7%. That would be worse than the 1980s when national income dropped by nearly 6%. 9% is not implausible, according to Andrew, if there is no material positive effect from lower interest rates and fiscal loosening. We could even get a double digit recession, he warns, if the worst case scenarios of significant deflation or sovereign default occured.