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Earlier we published the first results of yesterday’s afternoon’s special survey of Tory members and found overwhelming support for the leadership’s stance on tax, spend and debt. We also asked about the timing of the next election:

Picture_913% expect an election early in the new year; a fifth think it will coincide with the European elections.  Most members still expect Brown will wait until the very last minute, however.  I’ve always thought that too but as Iain Dale noted earlier this week, unemployment could be three million by then.  Three million or not, the economic situation is going to be grim, grim, grim.  The ‘time for change’ message will get stronger and the second Brown bounce will dissipate.

Ladbrokes still have 2010 as the most likely year for the election but next year is now at 13/8.

Tim Montgomerie

29 comments for: One-third of Tory members expect election within six months

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