Less than two weeks before the Glasgow East by-election, the SNP are polling ahead of Labour on voting intentions for Westminster elections for the first time. A YouGov poll for the Telegraph puts them at 33% to Labour’s 29% in Scotland, with the Conservatives on 20%. Anthony Wells calculates that:

"These figures – if repeated at an actual general election – would
represent a massive switch in support. On a uniform swing it would
produce 31 seats for Labour (down 10), 14 seats for the SNP (up 8), 10
for the Lib Dems (down 1) and 4 for the Conservatives."

The poll also shows however that 48% to 36% of Scots are against independence.

3pm: Statement from Annabel Goldie:

“This poll confirms two trends which are increasingly evident in Scotland – firstly, that the Liberal Democrats have become an irrelevance. Scottish politics is now a three horse race, and whilst we are still currently the third horse, Scottish Conservatives are closing the gap on Labour. Secondly, and Alex Salmond should look away now, this is yet more decisive confirmation that Scots do not want independence, in any shape, way or form. No matter how the question is put, the separatists never win the vote. Hardworking Scots, in Glasgow East and throughout the country, want to focus on the issues and problems of today, not imagine tomorrow’s nightmares posed by risky constitutional upheaval.”

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