A YouGov survey for tonight’s Channel 4 News has Labour’s lead down to 4%.

Labour are on 40% (down 3%) and the Conservatives are on 36% (up 4%).  The LibDems are on 13% (down 2%).

My guess is that excluding the Conference bounce Labour’s underlying lead is approximately 6% to 8%.  Last week’s 11% lead reflected too much of the exposure Labour had enjoyed.  Tonight’s 4% lead reflects a very good four days of publicity for us Conservatives.

BUT and it’s a big but.  The ‘Mo’ might now be with the Conservatives.  Over the next two days the press might start asking some tough questions of Labour and Mr Broon, in particular.  His spinning of ‘the troops home by Christmas’ announcement somehow defined this man’s obsession with politicking over governing.  If the media decide that the new narrative is ‘Comeback Cameron’ that can only be good news, too.

PS Earlier I linked from the homepage to an Iain Dale story suggesting that the Conservatives might have pulled ahead in an ICM/ Guardian poll.  UK Polling Report is saying that that leak was based on very early data and Labour are now in the lead on that one.

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