Ben Brogan is confirming the rumours that tomorrow’s Independent will carry a ComRes poll that would give the Conservatives a two seat majority in an election:
ComRes had Labour 3% ahead in mid-September.
10.15am on 30th October:
The Independent: "The findings will worry Labour MPs, who have taken comfort from some recent surveys showing the party in the high thirties despite Mr Brown’s embarrassing retreat over the election that never was. However, Labour will hope that the Liberal Democrats revive after choosing a new leader in December, which could depress the Conservatives’ ratings. The recent advance of Mr Cameron’s party has been partly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats."
UK Polling Report: "The eight point lead is the largest enjoyed by the Conservatives in any poll since April, though since they started weighting by past vote ComRes have tended to produce some of the better poll findings for the Tories. It is also a good rating for the Lib Dems compared to their recent poor showings. It’s tempting to take these findings as a suggestion that a Lib Dem recovery would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, I think it’s a bit early to conclude that yet though."
Mike Smithson: "Yet looking at the detailed data the biggest move to the Tories has not been from the leaderless Lib Dems but from Labour. One in eight of those who said they had voted for Tony Blair’s party in May 2005 now say they are supporting the Tories. This is about the same proportion as the LD>CON switchers but, of course, there are far fewer of them."
Evening update 30th Oct: Wilted Rose has sent us some more analysis…
"Conservatives polling very well amongst older voters, ABs, C2s and DEs, the south and Midlands.
Meanwhile, they have improved significantly amongst younger voters, in Scotland (back up to 17%), and most importantly in the North where they are almost neck and neck with Labour
Significantly, Labour has collapsed to 24% in Scotland with ‘other’ (i.e. the SNP) at 44%
- The Conservatives are 10 points ahead of Labour amongst men (41 : 31) and 7 points amongst women (41 : 34).
- Not only are the Tories neck and neck (35% each) amongst 18-24 year olds (both 35%) and 35-44 (both 39%), they are 5 points ahead amongst 25-34 (35: 30); 22 points ahead in both 55-64 (48 : 26) and 65 + (50 : 28). Labour only leads amongst 45-54 year olds (C 31, L 39).
- The Lib Dems have recovered slightly but only amongst younger voters.
- The Conservatives are ahead by 10 points in AB (42 : 32) and DE (41 : 31) social class and 12 points in C1 (43 : 31) and neck and neck amongst C2s (38 : 39).
- The Conservatives are 24 points ahead of Labour in the South East (50 : 26), 10 points ahead in the Midlands (46 : 36) and 6 points ahead in Wales and the South West (38 : 32).
- There has been a remarkable recovery for the Tories in Northern England where they are only 3 points behind Labour (38 : 41)
- In Scotland, the Tories are on 17% while Labour are on 24%, with the other parties (mostly the SNP) on 44%."