Labour 37% (-2)
Conservative 36% (+3)
Lib Dems 16% (+1)
"It is obviously a sharp drop in the Labour lead and, for the
Conservatives, this is back to the sort of levels of support they were
recording in Populus polls prior to Gordon Brown becoming leader. The
only reason they are not ahead is that Gordon Brown has won back some
of the support Labour had lost to the Liberal Democrats."
Full stats here. Taken from Saturday to Tuesday, it spanned the same bank holiday weekend as the disappointing YouGov poll. If next week’s Populus poll for the Times shows the same sort of figures the risk of calling an early election would surely be too high for Brown.
Late update: The Wilted Rose has looked at the regional stats in detail and they paint a very mixed picture, including an 18% Conservative lead in the South East, and a 7% lead in the Midlands.
The blog has also compared these variations with those of the pre-election Populus poll in 2005 and concluded:
"If this is what happens with a Brown bounce: Tories well ahead in
the South East / 6% ahead in the Midlands /Slight improvement in North
and Wales/SW. Huge swing to SNP putting them only 4% behind Labour in
Scotland.Then what would bad times for Brown be like?"
- South East: the
Conservatives up 9% since the 2005 poll, LD down 9% and Labour down 2%. This will bring huge gains from Lab & LD.
- Midlands: Tories up 5%, Lab down 2% and LD 1%. Again, significant gains, although Electoral Calculus doesn’t do justice.
- North: Con +3%, LD down 3% and Lab down 1%. Some limited gains, but that could include Bolton W (Ruth Kelly).
- Wales/SW: Conservatives up
1% and LD and Lab down 1% with Plaid Cymru up 4%. Again, a few gains here and there for Con & PC.
- Scotland: Lib Dems and Conservatives decimated in Scotland with SNP up 15% and Lab up 11%. So there is a Brown Bounce – but it is only in Scotland (where Brown is popular). But
SNP has increased significantly, at the expense of Con (16% to 8%) &
LD (22% to 6%).
1st September update: