Earlier today I posted on today’s ICM poll for The Guardian.
I’ve now had a little more time to look at the survey and the most interesting detail comes in looking more closely at the newspaper’s regional analyses (summarised in The Guardian graphic on the right – click to enlarge).
A leader in the Guardian makes this conclusion:
"In the north Lib Dem support is firm: 22% now, against 23% in 2005. But in the south – where most Lib Dem MPs are elected – it has collapsed, down nine points at 19%. That means the Liberal Democrats are now stronger in the north than the south for the first time since their formation. The party has also dropped back seven points in London. Polling day could be brutal."
The Guardian has consolidated a number of different polls in order to get its regional breakdown so we shouldn’t draw strong conclusions but it would be appear that southern Conservatives are prospering in the Cameron-versus-Ming-contest. This is potentially good news for Conservative candidates like Zac Goldsmith in Richmond and Philippa Stroud in Sutton and Cheam although LibDem MPs may be better dug into individual constituencies.
Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report takes the regional breakdown and forecasts a Commons with 249 Conserative MPs, 335 Labour MPs and 35 Liberal Democrats – a Labour majority of just 20. Anthony writes: "The seats Labour gain in London and the North on these figures are not enough to outweigh the losses they’d make in Scotland and the South."