Two Saturdays ago I had to report that Labour had moved ahead by 3% and that was before the Brown honeymoon. I have better news for you tonight. Ten days into the Brown honeymoon and an ICM survey for tomorrow’s Sunday Mirror puts Labour just 2% ahead. By 37% to 35% there is no sign that Brown’s first acts as Prime Minister have produced anything like the take-off that his close advisers had hoped for or the blanket coverage might have produced.
The LibDems remain subdued on 17%.
There is no room for complacency, however, in the Tory camp. 52% of voters thought Gordon Brown had performed better than expected since replacing Tony Blair. By 52% to 20% – a massive lead – the new Prime Minister was preferred over the Tory leader on ability to handle terrorism. The Labour leader also enjoys a 43% to 37% advantage on Cameron’s trademark issue – the environment.
ConservativeHome hears consistently good reports from the Ealing Southall by-election. A victory for Tony Lit would be a certain way of killing the Brown bounce. It might also force LibDems to replace Menzies Campbell. Click here to offer help in the Ealing or Sedgefield by-elections.
10.45pm: UK Polling Report has an interesting post that analyses the historical impact on a party’s fortunes of a mid-term change in Prime Minister.