Are Tory members complacent or are they justified in their overwhelming view that Gordon Brown will be a less effective leader than Tony Blair?  By sixteen-to-one (64% to 4%) those Tory members surveyed by ConservativeHome thought that the Chancellor would be a less effective leader than the outgoing Prime Minister.

Other findings:

  • 24% believe that the Labour leadership election will keep the party in the headlines and give Gordon Brown an opinion poll boost but 70% do not believe that Gordon Brown will provide Labour with any long-term boost in the opinion polls.
  • 38% think that the Labour leadership contest will be divisive and voters will see the old Labour left reasserting itself.
  • 28% think that David Miliband should have challenged Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership.

Here are some of your verbatim observations attached to the survey:

  • "David Miliband does not want to be the captain of a sinking ship. When Gordon Brown explodes or implodes, Miliband will step in as its saviour."
  • "Gordon Brown will have no honeymoon at all. We will have a Callaghan-like three years with a failing Labour administration clinging on until the last moment."
  • "There will not be a resurgence of the Left (as an identfied political force) for two decades, but its insidious influence (eg institutional egalitarianism and redistribution of rights) will remain."
  • "The rump of 40-50 hard left MPs, all in safe seats, will be shown up as the potential power brokers in a Labour minority or coalition administration."
  • "The Tories will see a dip in the polls because we won’t have publicity… This will lead to plotting against DC, wasting our chance to consign Labour to opposition for a decade…"
  • "GB is not new; any bounce will be minimal; he is the co-architect of New Labour and cannot see why it has gone wrong."
  • "There should be a general election, NOT an internal Labour party election, or automatic handover."
  • "Gordon Brown has no mandate over English issues."