A YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead down from 8% to 5% (compared with the most recent YouGov poll – for The Sunday Times). In line with other recent surveys the LibDems are up – a strengthening that probably reflects the energy of their council candidates rather than a new affection for Menzies Campbell.
Three of the four pollsters in ConservativeHome’s poll of polls put the Tories on 37%. CommunicateResearch puts the party on 36%. The average Tory lead is 7.25%. The Conservatives were, on average, just 1.2% ahead of last year’s local elections.
At the last General Election Labour had a 49% to 27% advantage on economic competence. That has been transformed into a 1% disadvantage today. But that transformation in one of the three points of ‘the iron triangle of electoral success‘ is almost wholly due to a drop in confidence in Labour (-20%) rather than increased confidence in the Tories (+3%).