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Graphics to follow later but YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Times gives the Tories a 38% to 32% lead.

4.45pm update on Sunday:

YougovThe 9% lead in the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls is the largest in the series.  It may rise after May’s local elections if the Tories do well and David Cameron gains a ‘halo effect’ but will probably erode over the summer when Labour enjoys disproportionate media attention for its leadership succession (providing it doesn’t get too bloody).

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