This month’s Communicate Research poll for The Independent is still giving Labour a slim lead but it is only 1% after last month’s 2% lead. All of the other polls in the ConservativeHome poll of polls are indicating Tory leads (Populus 1%, YouGov 4%, ICM 8%).
All polls are showing a slippage in the LibDem position. Communicate Research puts Ming’s party on just 14% – down 3%. Christmas Eve’s YouGov survey had the LibDems on just 15%. The 16.5% position in ConservativeHome’s poll of polls is the party’s worst rating in the series and may raise internal doubts about the LibDem leader’s future. A year ago the party began the internal efforts to oust Charles Kennedy. Mike Smithson, Editor of PoliticalBetting.com – and a LibDem – has changed his mind on Ming’s future this morning and writes: "Now I think that unless there’s a reversal in the polling trend then he might just start to come under pressure."
Other findings from the CR poll:
- Labour may be experiencing a "spiral of silence": Communicate Research’s initial polling put the Tories 2% ahead but what The Independent describes as a "squeeze question" – "designed to draw out people who are reluctant to disclose their voting intention" – increased allegedly shy Labour support.
- Greens are on 5%: The SNP and BNP are both recording 2% each; Plaid Cymru and UKIP are both on 1%; and other still smaller parties produce 3% – the total for the ‘other parties’ equals about 14%.