The Tories enjoy a 10% lead over Labour according to a BPIX survey for the Mail on Sunday.  This is the same lead that BPIX found in early July – in the immediate wake of John Prescott’s difficulties.

The survey puts the LibDems on just 14%.  This is the lowest rating for the LibDems since Ming became its leader and, of all recent poll findings, the one most likely to cheer CCHQ.  David Cameron cannot be sure of entering 10 Downing Street without defeating a significant number of southern LibDem MPs.

In The Sunday Times, Bob Worcester presents some findings from recent MORI/ Ipsos polling.  The findings represent mixed news for the Tories:

  • "Cameron has been becalmed these past three months with only around three people in 10 saying they’re satisfied with his performance.  And as don’t knows make up their minds, they’re swinging to dissatisfied, women more than men."
  • "Even without pronouncements on policies, most Tory policies are thought best. Crime/law & order is thought by the most people, 57%, as one of the issues that will be very important to them in helping them to decide which party to vote for, and the Tories enjoy a seven point lead.  They also have a four point lead on having the best policies on healthcare among the 54% who say that will be an important issue, a massive 26 point lead on immigration, and a narrow two point lead on education."

In terms of law and order, on this morning there is an argument for the Tories doubling the number of prison places.

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