If we are to believe today’s ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror the Conservative Party has made no gains from Labour’s recent leadership difficulties. A 9% lead in the previous ICM poll (for The Guardian) in mid-August is down to 4% now.
Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com puts the ICM percentages into Baxter’s electoral calculus and finds the following seats projection: CON 276, LAB 292, LD 50. It is no wonder that The Sunday Mirror, in its coverage of the LibDem conference, is raising the prospect of a LibDem-Tory pact after the next General Election.
Mr Cameron will hope for better polls over the next few weeks. There is limited enthusiasm for his modernisation project within the Tory grassroots but the critics are muted when opinion polls point to improvement – buying the leader the breathing space his advisers want for their ‘faster and deeper’ changes.