YouGov’s poll for this morning’s Telegraph offers a similar headline result to that of ICM’s survey for Tuesday’s Guardian. In contrast to ICM, however, YouGov does not find any strong movement between Labour and the LibDems. It records a 7% Tory lead and helps produce a 6.4% Tory advantage in ConservativeHome’s poll of polls.
YouGov finds that by 43% to 36% voters prefer a Conservative government led by David Cameron to a Labour government led by Gordon Brown.
The most interesting component of the YouGov poll is a comparison between voting intentions at last May’s General Election and today. A Telegraph leader is underwhelmed by the overall Labour to Tory swing of 4% but that swing hides significant differences. The swing to the Conservatives amongst women, for example, is 6% but only 2% amongst men. It is 9% in London but just 2% in the North West and 3% in Yorks & Humber. Jonathan Scott wrote about the Tories’ continuing ‘northern problem’ on yesterday’s Platform.
RETURN TO CONSERVATIVEHOME AT 9PM TONIGHT FOR A MAJOR ANALYSIS OF WHAT PEOPLE THINK ABOUT POLITICS, POLICY AND THE CAMERON PROJECT.