After grassroots anger at David Cameron’s new changes to candidate selection the Conservative leader receives a big boost from a new ICM opinion poll in The Guardian.  The Conservatives enjoy a 40% to 31% lead over Labour – enough, writes The Guardian’s Julian Glover, for David Cameron to enjoy a narrow parliamentary majority.

The growth in the Tory lead is because of a marked shift of support from Labour to the LibDems.  Labour is down four points and the LibDems up five.  The 22% standing for the LibDems would appear to vindicate (in electoral terms) Ming’s strong criticisms of Tony Blair’s solidarity with Israel.  Labour will be surprised that it receives no benefit from John Reid’s sure-footed handling of the recent terror alert.  72% of voters told ICM that government policy has only increased Britain’s vulnerability to terrorism.

The Conservatives now enjoy a 6% lead in ConservativeHome’s poll of polls.

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