Yesterday Rupert Murdoch’s Sun paid MORI to survey British opinion and MORI announced a 10% Tory lead. Today, Murdoch’s Times has paid Populus to examine voting intentions and the Tories only enjoy a 3% lead over Labour.
Q. What should we believe?
A. Not too much this far from a General Election. ConservativeHome is more inclined to trust Populus given MORI’s volatility. But ConservativeHome’s poll of polls is probably most useful of all as it crudely weighs the last five polls – one each from BPIX, ICM, MORI, Populus and YouGov. That weighting process gives David Cameron’s Conservatives a 5.2% lead over a Labour party led by Tony Blair.
Peter Riddell sums it up in this paragraph for today’s Times:
"After the turmoil a month ago, the polls have stabilised, with the Tories clearly ahead of Labour, and the Lib Dems squeezed. The Cameron effect (the rise in Tory support in the past six months since he became leader) is worth about four points, with the losses split between Labour and the Lib Dems."