1,503 Tory members took part in ConservativeHome’s April survey of Conservative opinion. Over the last 24 hours we have published how they voted on international challenges and state funding of political parties.
The April survey found a marked drop in satisfaction with David Cameron. The UKIP row, a negative reaction to the heavy emphasis on the environment and indifferent opinion polls may have contributed to this drop. The crucial thing to say is that the numbers reflect polling before May 4th’s encouraging local election results. ConservativeHome could have published these results on 3rd May but knew that that would be unfair to Mr Cameron and the party’s council candidates. The last four months’ results are published below:
- January: Satisfied 82% / Dissatisfied 16% / Net +66%
- February: Satisfied 81% / Dissatisfied 18% / Net +63%
- March: Satisfied 78% / Dissatisfied 20% / Net +58%
- April: Satisfied 68% / Dissatisfied 29% / Net +39%
The survey results were weighted to reflect the voting patterns that, last December, saw the panel accurately predict the Tory leadership result. Although this weighting was carried out, it produced figures that were only 1% different from the unweighted numbers.
Given the events of the last ten days – the collapse in Labour support, the new Tory confidence and David Cameron’s moves to reassure the party’s right on issues such as the Human Rights Act and euthanasia, it is probable that David Cameron’s rating will rise again when opinion is again surveyed later this month.
This morning’s Express gave a very warm welcome to David Cameron’s "heartening" commitment on the HRA. Click on image on right to enlarge editorial. "Putting himself on the side of the law-abiding majority is the best thing he has done as Leader of the Opposition," the newspaper declares. It believes that the Tory leader’s choice of this issue suggests he has "conquered his fear of being accused of lurching to the Right".
Still to be published from the April survey are the ratings of the top ten individual shadow cabinet ministers and respondents’ verbatim answers to an open comments box.