The next General Election might be four years away. In those four
years the Labour Party might implode. The economy may slow. The
LibDems may get a new leader. The Tories will have presented their policy group reviews. There is a long way to go until the next General Election (Gordon Brown cutting and running is looking less and less likely) but David Cameron is not yet popular enough to take the Tories into a majority government. That fact is underlined by an analysis by Professor John Curtice for today’s Sunday Telegraph:
"Mr Cameron’s poll lead indicates a four-and-a-half point swing from Labour to the Conservatives since the General Election. The Liberal Democrats, on 18 per cent, are five points down. If these movements were replicated across Britain, the Tories would still win only 284 seats. Not only would this leave them well short of the 324 seats needed for an overall majority, they would still be three behind Labour."
Professor Curtice examines the reasons why the current electoral system disadvantages the Tories and spotlights the four regions where the Conservative Party needs to make electoral breakthroughs.