I’m grateful to those visitors who responded to my request of 24th February for advice on how to set up such a poll of polls. I’ve chosen a simple average of the last five polls of Britain’s main pollsters – BPIX, ICM, Mori, Populus and YouGov. I don’t pretend it is a perfect poll of polls. In many ways it is quite crude but it gives a rough idea of the state of the parties.
Opinion polls have tended to overstate Labour’s position in recent years and it must be hoped that they still do. Nonetheless, the first poll of polls suggests that Labour has a very narrow 0.4% edge over the Conservative Party.
The poll of poll numbers will be input to the ElectoralCalculus website to produce the seats projection at the bottom of the graphic. On this occasion that produces a Labour majority of 50. This, of course, is based on a uniform nationwide swing. It is likely that results will be more complex than that with significant local and regional variations. The concentration of LibDem support would be very unlikely to reduce
their number of seats to 32, for example, even with just 19.2% of the
vote. Tactical voting – which has hurt the Tories at the last three elections – may even start to be used against a disliked Labour government.
The headline figures from the last twenty political polls are listed in the left hand margin – below the ‘About’ graphic.