Worcester_sir_bobWriting for The Parliamentary Monitor at, Sir Bob Worcester of MORI warns against premmature judgments about David Cameron’s leadership.  Sir Bob says that there are currently too many ‘don’t knows’ in the voting population to make clear judgments yet.  By next month, however, he hopes to be able to report how the ‘don’t knows’ have broken and a more useful assessment of the Tory leader should then be possible.  Sir Bob writes:

"According to the ‘Political Triangle’ model derived for Harold Wilson back in the 1970s, ‘leader image’ accounts for between a quarter and a third of the forces that might cause the swing voter to consider moving from one party to another."

Other underlying indicators of electability are party unity and economic competence.  Sir Bob’s conclusion:

"At the last election, Labour had a 30-point lead as the party with the best policies on managing the economy among the third of the electorate who considered that to be one of the most important issues on which they might make up their mind, or switch. Will the Cameron/Osborne team be able to dent that lead or raise its salience among those who might return or switch to them?  If Cameron can convince the millions of former Tory voters who have stayed at home these past three elections to return to the fold, he’s a third of the way there. If the boundary revisions cut the way that many expect, that could move them another third of the way, and if  the Tory vote improves, we could well be in hung Parliament land by May 4, 2009."