The final numbers from the ConservativeHome.com Members Panel survey cover the views of those who identify themselves as Tory supporters – rather than as members. This site is a big advocate of a more open Conservative Party that involves Tory voters in the selection of, for example, parliamentary candidates but we are cautious about reading too much into what these supporters say because only 334 took part in last week’s panel voting. That 334 contrasts with the 1,351 participating members and is therefore subject to a much bigger margin of error. The additional health warning is that we know the Panel of members accurately predicted the outcome of the leadership election. We cannot be so sure that we are yet reaching a balanced number of supporters but intend to actively recruit more over coming months.
But, with those health warnings in mind, the Tory supporters within the Panel appeared slightly less enthusiastic about David Cameron’s leadership. While 82% of members were satisfied with DC only 73% of supporters were satisfied. Nearly a quarter of supporters (24%) were dissatisfied compared to just 16% of members.
There was also less expectation of a Cameron-led government after the next election. Tory supporters expected such a government by a margin of 67% to 24%. 77% over 17% of members told ConservativeHome that they expected Mr Cameron to become PM on the next polling day.
69% of supporters thought the Tory party was on the right course compared to 76% of members. 25% thought it on the wrong track – 17% of members did.
Views on the five policy issues were almost identical to members.