Polls_2Two opinion polls give David Cameron a lead tomorrow.  ICM for The Sunday Telegraph gives ‘Cameron’s Conservatives’ a 2% lead.  YouGov for The Sunday Times gives the Tories a 1% lead.  The opinion polls are discussed on YouGov’s Polling BlogICM finds that the Tory leads widens slightly to 3% if Gordon Brown was leader.  This contradicts the evidence of previous polling which has suggested that Labour would do better with Brown than Blair.  This may ease the pressure on Blair from within his parliamentary party and cause some Labour strategists to scratch their heads…

Labour will not be too worried by these polls at this stage, however.  The surveys follow a period when the Conservatives in general and David Cameron, in particular, have enjoyed extensive and unusually favourable coverage.  Nonetheless Francis Maude welcomed the polls: "We seem to be at the dawn of a new era. There is much work still to be done, but this is a great start."  So much for Tory politicians not commenting on polls!

Brown_at_conferenceThe most worrying findings for Labour come in the detail of YouGov’s polling.  UK Polling Blog:

"YouGov’s polls have consistently found that the overwhelming majority of people thought that Gordon Brown was doing a good job as Chancellor – his approval ratings have been consistently high – normally around +30 and, at the end of last year and earlier this year, +40 and +41. YouGov’s poll this week – conducted just after his announcement that his earlier growth figures were wrong – has Brown’s net approval rating down to only +4."