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Iain Dale is an LBC presenter, a commentator with CNN and the author/editor of over 30 books.

On Tuesday, Steve Baker led a Commons debate on the loan charge scandal. Although it was held in Westminster Hall, it was extremely well attended, with MPs from all parties giving John Glen, the Treasury Minister tasked with responding to the debate, a right going-over.

I wasn’t there, but am told that he looked rather shaken at the vehemence of some of the contributions. For those who don’t know about the loan charge controversy, HMRC is trying to claim 20 years of back taxes from people who legitimately took advantage of a tax scheme that reduced their tax liabilities.

These are not rich people; they are independent contractors. It emerged this week that Philip Hammond has had to apologise for the evidence he gave to the Treasury Select Committee in which he called such schemes ‘illegal tax evasion’. Since the schemes were endorsed by HMRC, they certainly couldn’t be described in this way. Indeed, not only were they endorsed by HMRC, but we found out this week that it was paying contractors itself using these schemes! Hypocritical, much.

I have no problem with the Treasury stopping these arrangements, but to go after people for 20 years of back taxes is just outrageous and contrary to all the rules of natural justice. They’re causing huge amounts of human misery, bankruptcies, family break-ups and even two suicides.

I have no doubt that they will have to backtrack on this, and admit that they’ve got it wrong. Indeed, I intend to make sure of it. It’s just a matter of when.

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If Theresa May is actually ever knocked off her perch, it is rumoured that up to 15 candidates might put their names forward to succeed her.

Most of their candidacies would be utterly self-delusional, of course, but one name which hasn’t yet done the rounds very much is that of the keeper of the 48 letters (or fewer) himself – Sir Graham Brady. He’s trusted across the party, he’s a Brexiteer of the non-foaming-at-the mouth-variety, he’s the right age… I could go on.

Elected in 1997 he would be popular with the older guard and, as Chairman of the 1922 Executive Committee, he’s also liked and respected by new MPs.

I hate to use the phrase ‘compromise candidate’, but it wouldn’t be the first time someone had come through the middle as everyone’s second choice. His main drawback is his relative lack of visibility in the voluntary party, I suppose.

I first met Graham back in the early 1990s when he was working at the Centre for Policy Studies. He then joined the transport-based public affairs consultancy that I was co-owner of. I came to know him well enough to be able to say repeatedly on the radio over the past week or two that if there’s anyone the Conservatives can trust to maintain the rules of the party over the leadership, it’s Graham. And I mean it.

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I wonder if the betting markets are taking bets on the number of Tory MPs who will throw their hat into the ring when the time comes. I reckon there are at least a dozen who have made it known they would consider running, or are expected to stand. Here’s my list so far…

  • Geoffrey Cox
  • David Davis
  • George Freeman
  • Michael Gove
  • Jeremy Hunt
  • Sajid Javid
  • Boris Johnson
  • Philip Lee
  • Penny Mordaunt
  • Amber Rudd
  • Tom Tugendhat

I saw one article claim that, if Michael Gove doesn’t stand, Nick Boles might while, according to one of my sources, Caroline Nokes, the Immigration Minister, might also take a punt. Given her record in the post so far, I’d say this would be a ‘courageous’ move on her part.

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One statistic leapt out at me from the recent spate of polls. It was the fact that  Labour’s six point lead among female voters has recently been transformed into a five point Tory lead.

I think there is a general feeling out there among so-called ‘normal’ voters that Theresa May is doing her best and that the beastly men are being unfair to her.  The rights and wrongs of the Brexit deal don’t really concern ordinary voters, but the optics do.

Women may not always be the greatest supporters of female politicians, but if they feel that a fellow woman is being bullied or unfairly treated, then the wagons begin to circle. That’s what’s happening here.

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A lot of attention has been paid to Cox over the last six weeks, since he sprang into our collective consciousness at the Birmingham conference, where he introduced the Prime Minister with a barnstorming rallying cry.

He’s now said to harbour some leadership ambitions himself. A bit as with Graham Brady, it’s not impossible to see the stars aligning. But attention should also be paid to his deputy, Robert Buckland, the Solicitor-General.

He’s increasingly rolled out to defend a sticky wicket in the media by Number Ten, and does a bloody good job at it. He’s also got a very well-developed sense of humour

I imagine he rather enjoys his current job, but in the next reshuffle I hope he gets a Minister of State post in which he can prove whether he’s got Cabinet potential. I rather think the answer will be yes.

79 comments for: Iain Dale: Brady, not only keeper of the letters, but a dark horse leadership candidate

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