The polling in 2011 provided a clear and consistent picture of the political landscape. Five points are salient:
The direction for 2012? Never has it been more obvious that "it's the economy". News events like Libya and the riots come into view, seem terribly important, then disappear again. Even 'schools 'n' hospitals', though they bob up and down in people's consciousness, are as nothing compared to the monotonous swell of anxiety about our economic security. So long as Cameron and Osborne lead on that issue – and in spite of all the dissatisfaction, they certainly do still lead on it – they will command the agenda.
The EU is a pollster's dilemma. Ask one way about what's important, and Europe elicits huge passion among a significant portion of the population. Ask people plain and simple to name the issues that are most significant in their own lives, and it's rare that Europe comes high in any list. And while they are overwhelmingly negative about the Commission and all its works and tend to applaud expressions of independence, they are also very nervous about the status quo being disrupted.
People's preferred position is to be inside the EU but situated as near as possible to the exit. Avoiding any real decision is much preferred. But if there were to be a truly decisive moment for the UK's relationship with the EU (for example, in a referendum) the key question would be whether people felt economically safer in or out. I don't believe nation-loving sentiment would be the dominant consideration.
If one were advising the Conservatives about what to do to maintain their current relatively strong position, one might say:
So for at least the next two years the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have every reason to help each other achieve real reforms for the country, so long as they are in relatively non-controversial areas where we can make significant progress – ones which may seem minor but can bear fruit well before the next election. I have repeatedly mentioned open government and freeing up data; both coalition partners believe in this and it's of massive longer term value. There is much further to go in changing the process of government, specifically about reforming the civil service to make it more of an enabler and less of a system of bureaucratic blocking.
Most important is addressing productivity. As the world begins to emerge from its despondency, it will again be all about competitive advantage. America will again innovate its way into growth, and China will do it with sheer sustained effort. But in Europe? The themes will be about who works hard and who doesn't; who uses the new technological tools and who stands in the way; who can get the most out of talent within the growing band educated unemployed. When so much talk is of cuts and strikes, this should be the response.