There is no evidence from the poll of polls that the Dominic Cummings affair speeded up what has been a steady Tory decline since mid-April.
If so much, as Ministers suggest, depends on common sense, nuance, context and common sense, people will draw the inevitable conclusion.
Plus: Shapps’ presentational success and Hancock’s stuck tests. And: whatever Johnson says on Sunday, he’ll be damned either way.
Both sides must recognise that the Corporation as a whole can be performing well whilst its political coverage alienates Conservatives.
The art will be to do so in such a way that the NHS can cope with a rise in admissions. And social distancing for the most vulnerable must remain in place.
If employers consider themselves to be heading for catastrophe, it suggests that the wider public will catch up before too long.
The result will probably offer some respite to an industry which has previously come in for a lot of flak from certain quarters for misrepresenting the state of the race.
The Welsh Political Barometer, for example, forecasts a great night for the Conservatives. They can’t both be right.
All in all, a Conservative win is still the most likely result. But if the YouGov MRP, the Ashcroft dashboard and other polls are accurate, it is less likely than it was.
We now have the most amazing opportunity to deliver an emphatic victory over Corbyn’s extremists – and achieve Brexit into the bargain.
The move back to two party politics of 2017 seems to be repeating itself this time round.
At the last election strong early poll leads seduced them into shifting resources from marginals into far more hostile territory, with disastrous results.
Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.
We say again that there is a danger of Conservative expectations getting ahead of the electoral facts.
Each week, our panel of James Frayne, Marcus Roberts, Trevor Phillips, and Salma Shah will will analyse and assess what’s happening.