Henry Hill: YouGov lowers its Tory expectations in Wales and Scotland – but other sources disagree

The Welsh Political Barometer, for example, forecasts a great night for the Conservatives. They can’t both be right.

Red Swan…or Tory landslide…or…

All in all, a Conservative win is still the most likely result.  But if the YouGov MRP, the Ashcroft dashboard and other polls are accurate, it is less likely than it was.

ConHome’s election panel. “The Conservatives should be obsessing about contrast – not just on Brexit, but other wedge issues too.”

Each week, our panel of James Frayne, Marcus Roberts, Trevor Phillips, and Salma Shah will will analyse and assess what’s happening.

Mark Francois: I urge Leavers to vote Tory – so gaining Brexit, preparing for free trade and smashing Marxism. All at once.

We now have the most amazing opportunity to deliver an emphatic victory over Corbyn’s extremists – and achieve Brexit into the bargain.

The campaign, week four. Johnson pushes upwards but so does Corbyn.

The move back to two party politics of 2017 seems to be repeating itself this time round.

The Conservatives must resist any temptation to get greedy in which seats they target

At the last election strong early poll leads seduced them into shifting resources from marginals into far more hostile territory, with disastrous results.

Henry Hill: Is YouGov missing unionist tactical voting in Scotland, or is it not happening?

Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.

Why YouGov’s good poll for Johnson may be bad news for him

We say again that there is a danger of Conservative expectations getting ahead of the electoral facts.

Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017

The campaign feels better run, including online. People massively prefer Boris Johnson to Corbyn. The question is whether it is enough

Robert Halfon: The Thomas Cook bosses should pay for their greed

Plus: We Conservatives have a chance to unite, but don’t take an election win for granted. And: the radicalism of Gavin Williamson.

Do voters distrust Johnson on the healthcare? Sure. But Labour is no longer seen as “the party of the NHS”, either.

The latter’s NHS myth is fading as time passes, and younger people bring their consumer viewpoint to their use of public services.

Garvan Walshe: No Deal has failed. The choice is May’s deal, no Brexit – or no United Kingdom.

The fundamental mistake of the Brexiteers domestically is that they have mistaken a moral argument for a political one.

Patrick Spencer: What the new Government should do to ensure migrants are better skilled – and supported

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed.

The Boris bounce: where are the votes coming from, and where might more be available?

Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.

ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.