YouGov | Conservative Home

Do voters distrust Johnson on the healthcare? Sure. But Labour is no longer seen as “the party of the NHS”, either.

The latter’s NHS myth is fading as time passes, and younger people bring their consumer viewpoint to their use of public services.

Garvan Walshe: No Deal has failed. The choice is May’s deal, no Brexit – or no United Kingdom.

The fundamental mistake of the Brexiteers domestically is that they have mistaken a moral argument for a political one.

Patrick Spencer: What the new Government should do to ensure migrants are better skilled – and supported

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed.

The Boris bounce: where are the votes coming from, and where might more be available?

Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.

ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.

33 per cent? 45 per cent? 71 per cent? What’s the true leadership election turnout?

The truth matters a lot to how the race shapes up. And there are widely differing estimates.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 72 per cent, Hunt 28 per cent. 72 per cent overall have voted. On these figures, Johnson has already won.

If the survey is accurate, it would be reasonable to assume, on the evidence available, that he will gain between 67 per cent and 71 per cent of the vote.

Hit hard, Hunt

It is precisely his underdog status that should free him, during this evening’s TV debate, to bite a bit as well as bark.

Who should Conservative members vote for in the leadership election? What matters most for Party and country is delivering Brexit.

Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.

YouGov’s poll. Last week, it suggested that Johnson would fare better in a general election than Hunt. Now, his lead has been reversed.

A week ago, we reported that, were Brexit delivered, Johnson would perform better in such an election. Hunt has now overhauled him on the same measure.

Meanwhile, the Conservative poll rating is at under a quarter of the vote

The evidence suggests that what would most improve this terminal score is delivering Brexit – not a new leader.

The identity of the new Prime Minister makes a difference to the polls. But Brexit is a far more dominant factor.

New polling from YouGov shows that leaving the EU is an electoral imperative for the Tories.

ConHome’s leadership election panel. “Boris could learn from his almost-rival.”

Each week, our panel of John O’Sullivan, Rachel Wolf, Trevor Phillips, Tim Montgomerie and Marcus Roberts will analyse and assess what’s happening.

ConHome’s leadership election panel. “May’s successors deserve better than a lame duck PM half-emptying the fiscal cupboard.”