Once a seat reaches 30 per cent BME population, it goes Labour. In 2010, this applied to 75 seats. By 2022, it could apply to around 120 seats.
The final part of our series this week on May’s elections. Will there be a LibDem revival – which polls have yet to indicate?
Continuing our ConservativeHome series on the key contests in each region or nation.
A handful of gains from the Liberal Democrats do little to disguise a total stalemate between Labour and the Tories in this region.
I also have new findings from Bristol North West, Bristol West, Thurrock, Colne Valley and High Peak.
In this marginal seat on the Thames estuary, Team Jackie take to an open-top bus in an attempt to foil UKIP and Labour, and Farage gains a Hitler moustache.
Where do voters in Thurrock and Brentford think the party leaders would go on a night out?
The fourth in our series investigates the East of England, where the minor parties are making their presence felt in a traditional Tory-Labour front.
“So you don’t arrive at a decision because you’re a barrister and therefore you favour the bar or because you’re a solicitor and therefore you favour the solicitors’ firms.”
As Conservatives it’s our job to acknowledge our gut instinct but also mediate it with morality and pragmatism.
Some figures, courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data.
Fascinating research from the Fabian Society.
The insurgents love the seaside, hate the Tories and pay close attention to the local election results.
Yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft poll casts light on its chances of winning Westminster seats – and on where Nigel Farage might stand.
Four-party politics is driving striking changes – and there are two seats where UKIP is now in the lead.