Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.
However, a clear majority of Tory-UKIP switchers said that a Conservative overall majority was their preferred outcome.
The Conservatives are stronger in the new towns, weaker in some some suburbs and more concentrated in the South-East – the cause and effect of changes in the party.