The Australian Liberals know who their target voters are. The Conservatives don’t seem to have a clue.

Amidst the gathering leadership election debate, there is a lack of focus on who such voters are and where they live.

A snap election and a Tory nightmare. Losing seats in London without gaining them elsewhere.

The point here is the electoral trade-off between what could plausibly happen in the capital and the provinces – with Corbyn entering Downing Street in consequence.

Ten local election results to watch for the Tories

How bad is the prognosis for urban Conservatism? Will there be a fightback outside of London? Will the Liberal Democrats show signs of life? Some potential clues.

Our CCHQ election audit: the rusty machine, part two. How and why the ground campaign failed.

Activists were asked to trust in a targeting analysis that proved to be based on flawed data and assumptions that were overturned by the manifesto.

Richard Holden: How and why the LibDems went backwards in every English and Welsh seat they defended

With seven of their nine seats in England now held with majorities of less than eight per cent of the vote, the next election offers a chance to take them out for good.

Lord Ashcroft: My new venture – the Ashcroft Model, showing seat-by-seat election prospects

It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.

Battleground Seats 5) London

Continuing our series on the key contests in each region and nation.

Four former MPs selected. Shortlist of two to take on Farron. All the latest candidate news.

Shortlists for Westmorland & Lonsdale, and Birmingham Edgbaston. Plus selections including Barrow & Furness, Ealing Central & Acton, Clwyd South and more.

Goldsmith reselected for Richmond Park

He now faces a battle royale to defeat the Liberal Democrat who unseated him back in December.

Exclusive: Richmond Park shortlist confirmed

Zac Goldsmith, Luke Parker and Laura Farris will fight it out tomorrow night.

Ken Clarke was right. MPs should vote with their consciences on Article 50.

But if they defy the referendum result, they must also accept the consequences.

Iain Dale: In memory of Jim Prior, who once told Thatcher that “you sound very sexy this morning”

Plus: A telling speech by George Osborne, the pleasing election of Philip Davies. Reading the Morning Star, just for a laugh. And: Andy Carroll walks on water.

Between them, May and Johnson risk endangering an orderly Brexit

Their falling-out is an open wound that risks infection.

In the Sleaford ‘Brexit by-election’, Brexit won hands-down

A reminder that most constituencies are not Richmond Park, and most voters are not Continuity Remainers.

Lewis Baston: By-elections – and what has happened in those in which the MP has resigned his seat

The story of who won (like David Davis). And who lost (like Zac Goldsmith).