My guess is that she is too smart to allow the worst case scenario to happen. To do that, however, she is going to have to move swiftly from focusing on winning the confidence of Conservative MPs and party members to winning the confidence of the markets.
Businesses and employees are only responding to monetary conditions set by the Bank of England, where the real responsibility lies.
The public will react very badly if they come to see the strikes as essentially political, but the Conservatives won’t want to appear unable to govern.
Voters aren’t used to a world of rising prices and interest rates, and their hearts and minds are up for grabs.
Above all, to what extent will he present a clear plan and message? My starter for ten is “help hard-working people and go for more growth”.
If the party really wants to honour its past, then it must face up to problems of the present.
The Government seems to have no plan to communicate as cost of living woes multiply. Here’s a first stab at one.
The shock-absorber is a looser fiscal policy. Although the budget deficit is higher than one would like, the good news is that it is falling sharply.
A key economic problem during the 1980s was union power. Now it is weak incentives to move and retrain.
The Chancellor should not feel constrained by the OBR’s forecasts into limiting the actions he can take.
The Russian invasion in Ukraine is not a reason to give up on it. Rather, it is a reason to redouble efforts to get there as quickly as possible.
The third in a series of articles on how the Chancellor should approach the upcoming Spring Statement.
Of the main tax cut candidates urged on the Chancellor, the best available is a VAT fuel reduction.
The first of a series of five articles on ConservativeHome this week about the main challenges that await the new Prime Minister.