At the last election strong early poll leads seduced them into shifting resources from marginals into far more hostile territory, with disastrous results.
Posts Tagged: Polling
Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.
Lord Ashcroft: The Tories hold steady, while Labour firms up its Leaver vote. Week Three of my General Election Dashboard.
When forced to choose, people prefer a Boris Johnson government to a Corbyn government by a ten-point margin, down from 12 points last week.
Neil O’Brien: There are still weeks to go, but for backbenchers like me, campaign 2019 feels much, much better than 2017
The campaign feels better run, including online. People massively prefer Boris Johnson to Corbyn. The question is whether it is enough
Farage’s decision to stand down some Brexit Party candidates seems to have been the most impactful development of this election week.
The fundamental mistake of the Brexiteers domestically is that they have mistaken a moral argument for a political one.
Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.
We need to re-discover our ability to spot the problems our constituents are facing and do something about them.
Sky Data’s numbers suggest that there is no public agreement on how to bear the large costs of the proposal.
Amongst the hopefuls, he fares best on account of his competence, his ability to handle Brexit, manage the economy and unite the country.
How many Tory members voted Brexit Party? YouGov’s findings are almost identical to our pre-election survey results
The match-up between the two sets of numbers is extremely close.
Lord Ashcroft: My EU election poll. Most former Tory voters say they will stay with their new party at the next election.
Exploring how people voted in last week’s election, why they did so, and when they made up their mind is instructive.
The leading psephologist anticipates that the Liberal Democrats will be the big beneficiaries of the local elections.
We seem to be heading back towards where British politics was between 2005 and 2015: in other words, towards more of a three or four or perhaps more party system.
James Frayne: Cross-party co-operation over Brexit is initially popular, but it will swiftly sour in practice
Everyone likes the sound of it – so long as they believe it is going to deliver their preferred outcome. Already Tory poll ratings are visibly on the slide.