How MPs say they will vote in today’s confidence ballot

We currently have it at 189 declared for May, versus the 31 publicly opposed, and 93 undeclared.

Andrew Gimson’s Commons sketch: May’s thin red lines grow thinner, yet she refuses to surrender

And her enemies are divided: can the No Dealers and the People’s Voters combine to defeat her?

Yesterday in the Commons. More opponents than supporters of the Prime Minister’s deal on the Conservative backbenchers.

That said, there was more backing for her from her party than some of today’s headlines suggest.

Use of the Caine

The significance of the Northern Ireland SpAd’s tweet lies less in its content than its author – and that it has been issued at all.

Flying frogs

Pro-Brexit MPs weighed a no-confidence vote in Theresa May yesterday evening. But the essential case against one remains unchanged.

The ERG dog that didn’t bark in the Johnson-preoccupied night

A rough guide to where some of the pro-Brexit players are on further proposals for Canada Plus Plus Plus – and No Deal.

WATCH: Paterson – It’s “complete nonsense, all this talk about leadership”

But he thinks “it’s a great pity [May] appeared to diverge with David Davis, whose white paper” sounds “sensible”.

Andrew Gimson’s PMQs sketch: May gives a forced laugh, Johnson looks despondent

Corbyn meanwhile opted out of Brexit, in the hope that the Government is making a mistake.

Garvan Walshe: To get real Brexit for Great Britain, the DUP should consent to Ulster staying in the Single Market and Customs Union

If there’s to be no border in Ireland, and Britain is to leave the Customs Union and Single Market, it follows that there must be a customs border on the Irish Sea.

Our survey’s write-in Cabinet promotion choices. Rees-Mogg, Cleverly and Mercer top the list.

Then come Redwood and Tugendhat to make up the top five. Four of the top ten have been in the Commons for less than three years.

WATCH: Paterson says Irish border issue is a “very, very small problem, if there is a will”

The former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland says there’s already a border and in all his visits “not a single person has ever said it presents a problem”.

Our survey and Brexit. Party members divide down the middle about bringing a halt to the talks.

Party member opinion on the negotiations is clearly at the harder end of the spectrum on independence and economics – though not invariably on immigration.

WATCH: Paterson says an assumption that we’re leaving the EU on WTO terms would be “prudent insurance”

He cautions against “dramatic talk” of cliff-edges and crashing out.

Lord Ashcroft’s Conference Diary: The attempt to bribe Fox with a lifetime’s supply of free sugar

Plus: Johnson’s cunning plan. Crisis? What crisis? Paterson breaks into German. And when Green was chucked over a bridge.

Profile: Tom Tugendhat, successful insurgent and a possible future Tory leader

With Rees-Mogg’s backing, how can he fail?