Patrick Spencer: What the new Government should do to ensure migrants are better skilled – and supported

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed.

The Boris bounce: where are the votes coming from, and where might more be available?

Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.

Lord Ashcroft: Will voters still give Johnson the benefit of the doubt? We’re about to find out.

Lessons endure from my polling study of our new Prime Minister, carried out six years ago when he was London’s Mayor.

ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 72 per cent, Hunt 28 per cent. 72 per cent overall have voted. On these figures, Johnson has already won.

If the survey is accurate, it would be reasonable to assume, on the evidence available, that he will gain between 67 per cent and 71 per cent of the vote. 

Lord Ashcroft: What my latest poll of more than eight thousand people says about Hunt and Johnson

It shows in detail what people make of the two candidates vying to be their next Prime Minister – particularly their appeal to voters who are not already Tories.

Who should Conservative members vote for in the leadership election? What matters most for Party and country is delivering Brexit.

Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.

YouGov’s poll. Last week, it suggested that Johnson would fare better in a general election than Hunt. Now, his lead has been reversed.

A week ago, we reported that, were Brexit delivered, Johnson would perform better in such an election. Hunt has now overhauled him on the same measure.

Meanwhile, the Conservative poll rating is at under a quarter of the vote

The evidence suggests that what would most improve this terminal score is delivering Brexit – not a new leader.

Robert Halfon: Javid embodies the Conservative dream – and should be the next Prime Minister

Amongst the hopefuls, he fares best on account of his competence, his ability to handle Brexit, manage the economy and unite the country.

Daniel Hannan: Eight reasons to vote Conservative in next week’s Euro-elections

Don’t imagine that the Party could be pushed into single figures in a national poll and then bounce back to beat Labour a few months later.

These Tory leadership candidates haven’t grasped the scale of the collapse of confidence in their party

No one has a prayer of bringing voters back to the Party if they don’t get on their knees and beg for forgiveness from the electorate.

Henry Newman: The Tory poll collapse is nothing to do with May’s Withdrawal Agreement. MPs should vote for it – and deliver Brexit

A basic problem remains unaltered – that there is no Commons majority for a No Deal Brexit. This point has been well made by Ann Widdecombe.

For a long time, the polls were scarcely worth watching. Not any more.

Conservative MPs should not sit idly by as their party’s ratings sink to the mid-30s and below. There’s reason to think the change isn’t temporary.

Polls, Brexit postponed – and the slump of the Conservative vote

We seem to be heading back towards where British politics was between 2005 and 2015: in other words, towards more of a three or four or perhaps more party system.