Lord Ashcroft: Introducing my general election polling dashboard

Together with my weekly focus groups, it will help to explain the dynamics of the campaign and the factors that will determine the outcome.

What would you want from the polls if you were Johnson?

Our answer is: a steady lead and a late wobble – to help get the vote out. He begins the second week on course.

Lord Ashcroft: What my latest surveys found voters south of the border think about the Union

Overall, most English voters would rather keep the Union together if it were up to them.

Lord Ashcroft: What my new poll of 8000 voters tells us about the country, the parties – and Brexit

It sets the scene as the Conservative Conference opens by showing what the voters themselves make of the unfolding drama.

Robert Halfon: The Thomas Cook bosses should pay for their greed

Plus: We Conservatives have a chance to unite, but don’t take an election win for granted. And: the radicalism of Gavin Williamson.

Do voters distrust Johnson on the healthcare? Sure. But Labour is no longer seen as “the party of the NHS”, either.

The latter’s NHS myth is fading as time passes, and younger people bring their consumer viewpoint to their use of public services.

Iain Dale: Were the Prime Minister to pull the plug on HS2, would he call time on Heathrow expansion too?

Plus: I* which I ru* i*to a few a**oyi*g problems fili*g this colum* from my *orfolk retreat.

Patrick Spencer: What the new Government should do to ensure migrants are better skilled – and supported

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed.

The Boris bounce: where are the votes coming from, and where might more be available?

Today’s polls reveal some interesting things about the early days of Johnson’s premiership – and hint at the battles to come.

Lord Ashcroft: Will voters still give Johnson the benefit of the doubt? We’re about to find out.

Lessons endure from my polling study of our new Prime Minister, carried out six years ago when he was London’s Mayor.

ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 72 per cent, Hunt 28 per cent. 72 per cent overall have voted. On these figures, Johnson has already won.

If the survey is accurate, it would be reasonable to assume, on the evidence available, that he will gain between 67 per cent and 71 per cent of the vote. 

Lord Ashcroft: What my latest poll of more than eight thousand people says about Hunt and Johnson

It shows in detail what people make of the two candidates vying to be their next Prime Minister – particularly their appeal to voters who are not already Tories.

Who should Conservative members vote for in the leadership election? What matters most for Party and country is delivering Brexit.

Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.

YouGov’s poll. Last week, it suggested that Johnson would fare better in a general election than Hunt. Now, his lead has been reversed.

A week ago, we reported that, were Brexit delivered, Johnson would perform better in such an election. Hunt has now overhauled him on the same measure.