January’s Communicate Research survey for The Independent shows a big changearound in LibDem and Labour support. The LibDem rating is up 7% and Labour’s rating is down 8%. Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting.com detects a possible change in methodology at Communicate Research. The Tory lead of 6.25% in the ConservativeHome Poll of Polls looks the healthiest […]
This morning’s YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph shows the Tory lead up from 5% last month to 7%. This is in line with January’s Populus poll which gave Cameron’s Conservatives an 8% advantage and ICM which put the Tories 6% ahead. The poll will also provide some relief for Ming Campbell following end-of-year surveys […]
The Conservative lead in the latest ICM/ Guardian poll is 6% (down slightly from 8% last month). Mike Smithson, over at PoliticalBetting, suggests that Ming’s pursuit of the BAe/ Saudi affair and a couple of assured Commons performances might have contributed to the 5% increase in LibDem support. I find the jump harder to explain. […]
A MORI poll for The Sun shows that Cameron is liked more than Brown on a personal level, but that the number of people who like Cameron and the Conservatives (19%) are fewer than those who like Brown and Labour (25%). Today’s Sun Says, says: "TODAY’S MORI poll for The Sun makes sobering reading for […]
A YouGov opinion poll reported in the Yorkshire Post – and paid for by Eurosceptic businessman Paul Sykes – shows that the Tories are "flatlining" at 29% across Yorkshire – the same percentage won at the last General Election. The poll will confirm the fears of those who believe that David Cameron’s first year was […]
A Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times gives David Cameron’s Conservatives a 7% lead. Last month the Tory lead was just 1%. The 39% Tory rating is the highest in the Populus series and the Conservative lead widens to 4.75% in the ConservativeHome poll of polls. Other Populus findings: Labour support would increase to 34% with […]
This month’s Communicate Research poll for The Independent is still giving Labour a slim lead but it is only 1% after last month’s 2% lead. All of the other polls in the ConservativeHome poll of polls are indicating Tory leads (Populus 1%, YouGov 4%, ICM 8%). All polls are showing a slippage in the LibDem […]
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times of nearly 2,000 voters (bizarrely coming just two days after another YouGov poll for The Telegraph) gives the Tories a 5% lead. The LibDems at 15% are at one of their lowest levels for a number of years. Other pollsters give the LibDems 18% (ICM), 19% (Populus) and […]
The year ends with ConservativeHome’s crude average of the most recent Communicate Research, ICM, Populus and YouGov surveys giving the Tories a modest 2.75% lead. This poll of polls number incorporates today’s YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph. YouGov gives the Tories a 4% lead (compared to 5% last month). If you believe the value […]
After last week’s Populus poll giving the Tories a slim 1% lead CCHQ will be relieved to read this morning’s Guardian and its news of an 8% Tory lead. The Tory lead in the ConservativeHome poll of polls is unchanged at just 3%, however. That’s because this ICM poll for the Guardian replaces an ICM […]
A Populus poll for this morning’s Times gives the Tories a narrow 1% lead over Labour. As noted by UK Polling Report the slightly disappointing change for the Tories is that the party’s share of the vote is down to 34% after being at 36% for the previous four Populus polls. Whatever the exact Tory […]
The ICM/ News of the World headline numbers are the good news for the Tory leader as Fleet Street accelerates its efforts to mark David Cameron’s first year in charge. A 9% lead puts the Tories within spitting distance of a parliamentary majority. The more discouraging news is in ICM’s findings that Gordon Brown is […]
Today’s YouGov/ Telegraph poll for the Tories gives a 5% lead (down 2% on last month) – exactly the same as ICM’s recent poll for The Guardian and much better than Tuesday’s Communicate Research poll for The Independent. Anthony King’s analysis of the poll seems spot on: "A year into David Cameron’s leadership of the […]
At this lunchtime’s Political Studies Association awards event Mark Gill of MORI presented the results of a survey of nearly 300 academics. We learnt that Gordon Brown was rated the best Chancellor and Norman Lamont the worst. Perhaps most interesting (but unsurprising) was the finding that academics clearly leaned to Gordon Brown when asked whether […]
PoliticalBetting.com is unimpressed with the reliability of this morning’s Communicate Research poll for The Independent. PB’s Editor Mike Smithson says that The Independent’s new monthly pollster has not ‘past vote weighted’ their poll (a view echoed by YouGov’s UKPollingReport) and has emailed Andrew Hawkins of CR to understand why not. I’ll be seeing Andrew at […]