It is believed that the Conservatives will again have a poor campaign, and that voters will punish them further on economic grounds. I believe this is heuristics, not thorough analysis.
Posts Tagged: Opinion Polls
There are many seats in London that are also C1/C2 heavy: it is just that they are outer London seats.
James Frayne: No, lifting the pay cap isn’t a priority for voters. Ministers should follow the evidence.
Indicating higher taxes, pledging potentially massive costs on retired people and raiding middle class welfare all played in the election result.
Plus: An apology on behalf of the pundits, the press, the pollsters, the politicians and the parties for calling this election utterly, totally and completely wrong.
If turnout matches 2015 it would be 78; if it matches the EU referendum just 52; or if everyone votes as they say they will, it climbs to 96.
Coalitions are the new normal…”banging on about Europe” is inherently unpopular…no-one will ever listen to the polls again.
But if turnout stays the same as the 2015 General Election, it could well be higher.
There is no point in any party piling up votes in its safer seats – assuming that voters vital to it, such as younger people in Labour’s case, turn out in large numbers in any event.
In these last few campaigning days, May must spell out what the choice means for your wallet, purse and savings
As we write, the Conservatives are still set for a win on Thursday, but there is risk of further slippage – unless key voters can be persuaded that Corbyn will crash the car.
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 60
But there is still much to play for: we find no fewer than 70 seats where Labour and the Tories are within five per cent of each other.
What will count most on election day is not so much how many votes are cast for each party, but how those votes are distributed across all constituencies.
Retail – and why the Conservatives should turn their focus to how Corbyn would plunder your purse, wallet and savings
May has a campaign for the country. She must complement it, as best she can, with one for you and your family.
The polls may be overstating the Opposition; Corbyn may under-perform his national share in key marginals; or the Tories may just be slipping.
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 142
Plus, we now present the different potential outcomes in each seat on a variety of turnouts.
For the most part, those in SW1 don’t actually set out to deceive the public. The trouble is – they deceive themselves.