But if turnout stays the same as the 2015 General Election, it could well be higher.
Posts Tagged: Opinion Polls
There is no point in any party piling up votes in its safer seats – assuming that voters vital to it, such as younger people in Labour’s case, turn out in large numbers in any event.
In these last few campaigning days, May must spell out what the choice means for your wallet, purse and savings
As we write, the Conservatives are still set for a win on Thursday, but there is risk of further slippage – unless key voters can be persuaded that Corbyn will crash the car.
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 60
But there is still much to play for: we find no fewer than 70 seats where Labour and the Tories are within five per cent of each other.
What will count most on election day is not so much how many votes are cast for each party, but how those votes are distributed across all constituencies.
Retail – and why the Conservatives should turn their focus to how Corbyn would plunder your purse, wallet and savings
May has a campaign for the country. She must complement it, as best she can, with one for you and your family.
The polls may be overstating the Opposition; Corbyn may under-perform his national share in key marginals; or the Tories may just be slipping.
Lord Ashcroft: My election model’s probabilities currently suggest a potential Conservative majority of 142
Plus, we now present the different potential outcomes in each seat on a variety of turnouts.
For the most part, those in SW1 don’t actually set out to deceive the public. The trouble is – they deceive themselves.
Iain Duncan Smith: It is better to face the social care crisis head-on than to dump the costs onto our children
The Prime Minister has shown determination and boldness – and the alternative is enormous tax increases under Corbyn.
None the less, a fall in the Conservative poll lead is not unhelpful to Downing Street and CCHQ at this stage of the campaign.
The message should not be to deny the risk of Corbyn Government is low – but to insist that however low the risk it is still irresponsible to Vote Labour.
It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.
Was your vote in the EU referendum a vote for yourself, your family, your neighbourhood, your country, Europe, or the world? For the short-term or the long?
Nick Hillman: Students, the election and our poll. More than half say they will vote Labour. And they still want to punish the LibDems.
They are willing to support the Corbyn leadership even though they expect it to break a similar tuition fees promise to that broken by Nick Clegg.