The fundamentals of our democracy are strong: voters continue to take pride in their community, to respect their neighbours, and to want Britain to be an outgoing, self-confident country that plays its part on the world stage.
In the previous five elections, the size of the shift in the polling gap between election day and six months before has been between six per cent and 12 per cent towards the Conservatives.
It would be wrong to assume such people are apathetic. They are mad as hornets. They are largely still Conservative. But to their dismay, they have concluded that the Conservative Party no longer is – thus ceasing to merit their support.
If they are to stop Labour sweeping to victory, they not only need to bring back in even more “don’t knows” than models suggest they currently will, but also win back a large number of voters who have abandoned the party.
Voters believe four of the Government’s five key pledges are more likely to happen under Labour than the Conservatives. Meanwhile, 2019 Tory voters prioritise spending on public services over tax cuts,
Again, it is undecided voters who are more hawkish on immigration. The issue’s high salience with swing voters is why it will be an important battleground in the next election.
They have grown up in a cultural milieu that denigrates Britain’s culture and history to the point that the idea it is even worthy of respect – never mind dying for – is ridiculous.
“If Nigel Farage doesn’t come back to lead… it never manifests in by-elections, it doesn’t have a ground machine, so I expect a few points of that would probably end up back in the Tory column.”
The Conservative Party has become far more dependent on older, blue-collar, non-London, non-graduate, pro-Brexit, anti-immigration, and culturally conservative voters to both hold and retain political power – and this remains true today.
People believe in their local place and community, but they want to feel that national government is backing them too. These are the lessons from our focus groups.
Our focus groups found the Party’s recent tweet, which featured a BBC newsreader raising her middle finger to the camera, played very badly with the people it needs to win back.
With both Labour and the Conservatives committed in practice to importing hundreds of thousands of people a year, there is scope for a minor party to harness deep public concern about the status quo.
The former lean towards the idea that American interests are best served by defending freedom and democracy around the world; the latter that US interests are best served by using our resources to improve life for ordinary Americans at home.
Voters of all persuasions were downbeat about the state of the country and its immediate prospects: nearly two thirds in my 10,000-sample survey said they thought America was heading in the wrong direction.