Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.
A week ago, we reported that, were Brexit delivered, Johnson would perform better in such an election. Hunt has now overhauled him on the same measure.
The evidence suggests that what would most improve this terminal score is delivering Brexit – not a new leader.
The traditional media environment for Conservatives has deteriorated significantly, while social media encourages egomaniacs and the loudmouths.
New polling from YouGov shows that leaving the EU is an electoral imperative for the Tories.
Sky Data’s numbers suggest that there is no public agreement on how to bear the large costs of the proposal.
MPs and activists should be asking themselves a big question: what is it that made him popular in the first place?
The most successful are those who can put their values to work and build a broad coalition, rather than exploit divisions.
Amongst the hopefuls, he fares best on account of his competence, his ability to handle Brexit, manage the economy and unite the country.
The match-up between the two sets of numbers is extremely close.
Exploring how people voted in last week’s election, why they did so, and when they made up their mind is instructive.
Labour is still the favourite. Scott Morrison, the new Prime Minister, has had success in binding wounds and campaigning effectively.
Don’t imagine that the Party could be pushed into single figures in a national poll and then bounce back to beat Labour a few months later.
No one has a prayer of bringing voters back to the Party if they don’t get on their knees and beg for forgiveness from the electorate.
If he is looking for a legacy beyond Brexit, then ‘rural proofing’ all government policy would be a good place to start.