Another quarter of them said they didn’t want the party to win, but to have enough MPs left to form a decent Opposition and hold the new government to account.
Last year, an embattled prime minister well behind in the polls called a snap election in the wake of a “crippling” rout in Spanish town halls. It worked.
This has become an increasingly important issue for voters – especially swing voters and for none more so than the young, amongst whom housing now competes with the economy as one of the single most important issues.
This government has a growing stench of death around it that even a sudden economic recovery would do little to shift.
The Deputy PM says when people make a choice in an election campaign, Labour’s lead will be cut.
On current trends, the next election poses the greatest threat to the Conservative Party’s continued existence in its history. Can we imagine politics with under 50 Tory MPs?
We spoke to 2019 Conservatives who put their chances of voting Tory again at less than five out of ten – the people the party will need to win back if it is to recover ground before the election.
When we look at the priorities of Conservative voters, 46 per cent want the cost-of-living and inflation tackled, 36 per cent want energy security improved, 30 per cent want economic growth to return, and only 14 per cent want taxes cut.
The question the pollsters asked was: “How strongly, if at all, do you support or oppose a goal to make Britain a country where no one smokes?” There is no mention of a generational tobacco ban, or any policy at all, let alone prohibition.
When asked about the overall effect, only 14 per cent of voters said they thought the Budget would leave them better off personally, with 2019 Labour voters (19 per cent) more likely to say this than 2019 Tories (12 per cent).
It’s going to take a lot more than a few pennies off National Insurance to save the Conservative Party from what looks set to be a looming election defeat.
Voters can lean towards a lower limit and favour decriminalisation for the same reason they can favour higher spending and lower taxes. It is the duty of politicians to do better.
They can appeal to two groups: those currently intending to vote for Reform UK, and those who currently “don’t know” who they would vote for if a general election were held tomorrow but who backed the Conservatives in 2019.
It will take more than a few gimmicks or tinkering with National Insurance to win back the trust of working-age voters and reverse the current, existentially-dangerous trend.