May’s statement about the Government’s plans now. What she said and what she meant.

The biggest defeat in modern times and the largest Tory rebellion won’t stop her trying to resurrect her deal.

Almost good enough isn’t good enough

Strangely but truly, the best way of helping the Prime Minister is to send her back to Brussels to win concessions on the backstop.

The Moggcast. “Most of the poison is in the backstop.” Were it removed, Rees-Mogg might support May’s plan.

But though such a change might win his support, would it persuade his colleagues? Plus: he believes Bercow made “an honest error” last week.

The Moggcast: Episode Twenty One, Tuesday 15th January 2019

“Most of the poison in the Deal is in the backstop.” The change that might win his support. Plus: why Bercow made “an honest error” but “I don’t think the Speaker is biased.”

Tim Bale: Johnson and Rees-Mogg are still in with a shout in the race to succeed May

New polling also reveals that neither is so far ahead as to be unstoppable, however.

Testing our survey against the latest polling of Party members. New evidence on Next Tory Leader.

Johnson has topped an ESRC poll, as he did our last survey. Its findings are even better for Brexiteers than ours were.

Our survey. Next Tory leader. Johnson is top again. Javid second, Raab third. Hunt is now fourth.

There are three contenders in double figures, one well ahead of the other two – and a very long tail of names in single figures,

ConservativeHome Awards: Rees-Mogg wins Brexiteer of the Year

Half of all respondents nominated the ERG Chairman, with another quarter voting for Dominic Raab.

Iain Dale: Brexit Derangement Syndrome breaks out everywhere. Adonis, Bridgen – and now, alas, Boles. Everyone’s going bonkers.

Plus: Which of Hancock’s Slags should I liaise with? I’m not known as “Uncle Herod” for nothing. And: Here’s hoping 2019 is happier than 2018.

Justine Greening: Brexit. We’re going round in circles – and only a second referendum can give a sense of direction

I also propose the Government staying neutral to recognise that people across the Conservative Party have very genuinely held, but different, views.

The Moggcast. Why British “fair play” could lead the Queen to send for Corbyn if the Government loses a confidence vote.

“I’m not interested in being an irreconcilable…the leadership question is settled.” Rees-Mogg accepts defeat – but reserves the right to differ over policy.

The Moggcast: Episode Twenty, Tuesday 18th December 2018

“I will support the Prime Minister…personally, though not every element of the policy.” Why Rees-Mogg will back the Government in a confidence vote. But if they lose, he expects British fair play would lead the Queen to send for Corbyn.

Andrew Gimson’s Commons sketch: May will perhaps be able to enjoy Christmas after all

The wind has changed in the Prime Minister’s favour.

Iain Dale: It’s going to be a White Christmas – because there are snowflakes, snowflakes everywhere.

Plus: Tory MPs, the world’s most duplicitous electorate. But a certain long-serving woman Labour MP is sending Christmas cards to them all…

How MPs say they will vote in today’s confidence ballot

We currently have it at 189 declared for May, versus the 31 publicly opposed, and 93 undeclared.