I believe so – but nonetheless, the balance of risks, driven by economic and political trends, has definitely shifted.
Posts Tagged: inflation
The Budget should be a big reset moment for post-Brexit, post-Covid Britain. It risks being lost amidst a rush to tax rises.
It will probe whether or or not Sunak can prepare the country for that future – and perhaps succeed Johnson himself, “one fine day”.
David Green: By creating a new investment bank, Sunak would give us a way of using our lockdown savings productively
One of an occasional series of articles that ConservativeHome is publishing in advance of the Budget.
The first group of savings are about making the state more efficient, the second about creating a state focused on the core tasks of government.
After a decade of forward guidance, credit easing and quantitative easing, it was clear even before the Covid-19 crisis that monetary policy had run out of road.
If, that is, interest rates carry on at rock bottom rates. But we have to take a chance on growing our way out of this crisis.
Ryan Bourne: Don’t fret about this debt – at least not yet. Big tax rises would choke economic recovery.
If it proves a temporary blowout rather than permanent, accumulated debt levels being modestly higher looks manageable.
This economic crisis is unlike any we’ve ever seen before, thus it is impossible to make predictions. But already there are signs of who will be most impacted.
Two extreme versions of what happens next in Britain. Events are more likely to end up somewhere in the middle.
John Redwood: Why I, as a strong supporter of the market economy, back the Government’s emergency economic measures
The reason we will get away with it again, as we did in the banking crash, is that there is so much deflation around, inflation is not a problem.
Interview. Sharma – “Every foreign investor I met thought leaving the EU would present significantly more opportunities for bilateral trade.”
The Employment Minister embodies two reasons why the Government is still afloat – its jobs creation record and under-reported Ministerial loyalty.
Stephen Booth: Brexit and the economy. There are ups, there are downs. But whatever happens, our fundamentals remain strong.
A flexible labour market, a well-regarded legal system, and comparatively favourable demographics relative to the major European economies are all valuable assets.
Mark Harper: Here are the reforms we need to make to the Apprenticeship Levy, Further Education and student funding
Shifting the focus to FE is not only the right thing to do, but would send a powerful message.
Let us hope not. It’s unlikely, but not completely impossible. The Government must battle four trends to reduce the risk.
The Chancellor has been fortunate that the public finances have improved substantially at a particularly convenient time.