It’s hard to see how the Conservatives can sustain their electoral position by U-turning on Brexit. Its core vote will surely completely collapse.
The Tories have been ahead only once since the summit, though the shift away from them has flattened out.
It’s a counter-intuitive take – but it’s what the sum of opinion polling in recent years tends to suggest.
Polling suggests real concern among them about extremism. But one wouldn’t think so from the coverage of her appointment.
There is no point in any party piling up votes in its safer seats – assuming that voters vital to it, such as younger people in Labour’s case, turn out in large numbers in any event.
What will count most on election day is not so much how many votes are cast for each party, but how those votes are distributed across all constituencies.
The Westminster Village gets overwrought about the politics of America and overwhelmed by the glamour of its presidency.