Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.
It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.
Both parties hammered the Lib Dems as a clutch of very slender victories gave Labour their point of light on election night.
Our fifth battleground summary explores the capital, where Labour and the Conservatives square off whilst trying to squeeze out the Liberal Democrats.
Following our report, Justin Hinchcliffe has been removed from his post.
Justin Hinchcliffe, the Tottenham Chairman, has intervened to undermine the Tory campaign in a neighbouring constituency.
Plus: This week’s focus groups. Straw-Rifkind fallout. The latest party political broadcasts. And: if the leaders were holiday destinations, which would they be?