Life would be easier for the Conservative Party if the Government could be relied on always to do the wrong thing, but the new divide may instead be between ministers and their own backbenchers.
The Commons no longer has the time required to educate future premiers, which is one reason why they last such a short time in office.
Tough decisions are needed to curb the welfare bill, and previous governments have faced up to that reality. Politicians of today need to do the same, or the costs will continue to rise.
Tory centrism might at some point be due a comeback. It is the obvious gap in the market. But unless it learns from these and its other mistakes, it ain’t happening.
Whilst all rather extreme situations there are certainly possible scenarios for an election in 2027, none of which are impossible, despite the fact constitutionally Labour could, and might want to, hold out until August 2029
There has to be a plan to reform taxation and set people free to do better than the state can do on their behalf.
We should stop pretending that the status in the law of ‘fiscal rules’ is of any relevance – with Parliamentary Supremacy the penalty for ignoring fiscal rules is set by the bond markets not the law courts nor the OBR.
Put absolute effort into getting big policies right. Be clear about your objectives and how you will meet them. Work out its strengths and weaknesses. Predict and pre-empt lines of attack. Test messages, stroke stakeholders, refine the offer.
Historically, full participation in the political community marked the culmination of someone’s development as an adult citizen. Today, we invert that logic.
His warning would be simple and direct: if you make it harder to employ people, don’t be surprised when fewer people get employed.
Why persist in a job that gives him no pleasure and serves no higher ideological goal? It’s not even as if he is the champion of a Labour faction in the way that Blair, Brown and Corbyn were.
Children brought up in poverty have worse life chances and educational opportunities. These effects will be with us for decades to come. The best way to save money is to look at the triple lock, the pension age and the winter fuel payment.
The right Tory candidates could use the role to shape an alternative vision to Labour, show that Tories can be competent and deliver, that we can change some of the things that voters think aren’t working. Some mayors have, in parts of their remit, more leeway than a government minister.
Politics is often about choosing which principles to prioritise. Conservatives should stand firmly behind pensioners, but we should do so in a way that rewards contribution, supports saving and reflects sound economic principles.