The average Conservative majority in seats where UKIP finished second is 18,328 votes.
Last week’s by-election in Oldham put a different complexion on their advances in May.
Ghost electorates will no longer boost the number of Labour constituencies.
90 per cent now predict a majority after the next election.
Labour MPs control the policy machinery and the succession, so those who want a party that resembles the leader they chose have to beat them.
In Manchester, the tone should be one of getting on with the job, not self-indulgence or triumphalism.
The next election may see increasingly distinct pitches from each of the parties towards sections of the latter.
In response to Paul Abbott, here’s a personal account from the front-line, since I’ve been reselected as the Conservative Parliamentary Spokesman for Tooting.
A weak opposition will let the Chancellor set the agenda, and invite a ‘risk versus stability’ frame which plays to his strengths as a candidate.
Often the reforms are going further than anything that Margaret Thatcher achieved.
There are claims that he will try to do so. Please give your view.
All four teams used different systems. Sometimes these spoke with each other. But, most of the time – this being the Conservative Party – they didn’t.
The story of the last month is of Osborne’s rapid decline.