Don’t forget the arithmetic. In addition to the ERG, watch the DUP, Tory Remainers and soft Brexiters, and Labour rebels.

There is more than one moving part in this complex day, and some could counteract one another.

WATCH: Baker reiterates that there would be a majority for the Malthouse Compromise

The implication is that the Government would win more votes if it kept the ERG happy.

Trust

Robbins’ overheard conversation has further eroded faith in his boss – and the ERG is itself divided over whether changes to the backstop would themselves be enough.

To Hell with Tusk

All he may have achieved is to make the No Deal that neither side of the negotiations wants marginally more likely.

Hammond, Penrose, and Kwarteng join the Government as May circles the wagons

The Prime Minister has eschewed the chance to bind waverers with patronage in favour of promoting able loyalists who won’t make trouble.

Theresa Villiers: The ERG’s solution to the Irish border opens the door to a wide-ranging free trade agreement

Now we will find out if the EU really is seeking practical progress, or if it is cynically exploiting the issue as a way to seek leverage.

The Moggcast. Burt and Duncan’s “absurd” attacks on Johnson “must have been” approved by Downing Street.

Inside the ERG’s Brexit plans. Why Rees-Mogg doesn’t believe the hype about ‘Blue Wave’ entryism. Plus: how he spent his summer.

Interview: Andrea Jenkyns – “Prime Ministers keep their jobs if they keep their promises”

The Morley and Outwood MP says that her constituents want the Brexit they voted for – and asks why Downing Street accuses Leavers but not Remainers of “bullying”.

Henry Newman: The more we look back to the referendum, and re-fight its battles, the less we get ready for the future

And most EU member states haven’t spent nearly enough time really thinking what the future relationship between the UK and EU should look like, either.

If Brexit really is ‘above party politics’, Greening can’t complain about the ERG

Either the EU is an issue over which one should put conscience before whip, or it’s not.

What is a Conservative? Answers to Soubry on a postcard, please.

P.S: Only one Tory Prime Minister in recent years was “taken down” by Tory MPs. Clue: it was neither Major nor Cameron.

Hammond’s indiscipline shows why May should have moved him – and why she must stop dithering over Brexit

If making a final decision seemed too risky for the Prime Minister, her deliberate indecision has now proved even more dangerous.

There is scant evidence that May is about to u-turn on the Customs Union

The Prime Minister has made the freedom to strike trade deals, so important to key allies and the membership, a cornerstone of her strategy.

Conservative revolts on Europe are coming now not from Leavers – but from former Remainers

What counts most is opposition to a Bill or to parts of it. And most Tory criticisms of the EU Withdrawal Bill aren’t coming from the Brexiteers.

Interview: The double-hatted Suella Fernandes – both a member of the Government and a pro-Leave group leader

She points to the opportunities to imitate New Zealand agriculture, and to crack down on big businesses which evade tax.