Unless either the UK or the EU want a trade war, its most likely consequence would be making use of a mass of small deals to achieve sizeable gains.
If she tries to work through populist edicts and diktats, she will fail. And if the Right argues that a few tax cuts for the richest will solve our problems, this will be no better.
The more he leaks, the slower May will be to put anything on the table. And the slower she is to do so, the slower the negotiation will proceed – from which everyone loses.
Tusk’s statement last week responding to Article 50 struck the right tone. It was measured, matter of fact and avoided confrontation.
The EU’s draft document suggests broad agreement on most of what we want. And the three bones of contention are surmountable.
“No deal means no winners – everybody will lose.”
In Tusk’s draft negotiating mandate, the seeds of a deal can already be found.
The Government must try to build from the essentials out – security, legal certainty, frictionless trade. Zero tariffs would be the icing on the cake.
Here are five reasons why you, we and all concerned should keep a cool head.
Will the UK get a deal? Much depends on whether other European governments or the EU Commission take charge on the other side of the table.
With growing problems at home, many member states are at odds with the Commission’s punitive line on Brexit.
The former EU Commissioner warned the Lords of the costs of Brexit.
Plus: Unemployment is down. Productivity is up. Wages are up. Despite Brexit. Despite Brexit. Despite Brexit…
We shouldn’t take the ideological pronouncements of the Commission as being set in stone. The member states may yet have their say.
Such a deal would, on balance, be better than Most Favoured Nation Status. But MFN would be better than a bad deal – and giving up on regaining control of our borders.