It may not be agreed at all with the EU – and if it is the numbers in the Commons are very tight indeed by our calculation.
If a UK-EU deal is agreed, it will be because both men want one urgently – which in turn opens a chance to reset Anglo-Irish relations.
The place to put these proposals to the test is at a general election, not in a Parliament apparently determined to do little other than delay Brexit.
If it happens, he must not just win but keep the backing of the DUP, Spartans, Labour rebels and as many of the whipless 21 as he can – and stave off a referendum too.
We can begin to see how a deal can now be agreed and then pass Parliament. But the obstacles are still formidable.
Also: Democratic Unionists ‘under pressure’ over Brexit u-turn; and Gove backs Bowie’s criticism of SNP over no-deal preparations.
MPs would thus become the elected equivalents of the welfare scroungers of tabloid legend – dragging the reputation of Parliament even deeper into the mud.
An agreement is unlikely to be reached at all. But these estimates, however rough, should give pause for thought.
The vehement Johnson of last week transformed himself into a master of the soft word that turneth away wrath.
Like May before him, the Prime Minister risks inflicting deep structural damaged on the United Kingdom in order to escape tactical difficulties.
Had the Benn Act not been passed, it would be far stronger – as he presents his new “fair and reasonable compromise” to the EU.
And: Gigabit broadband will soon be “sprouting like vermicelli”, says Johnson. Plus: Mordaunt’s warnings and Hoey’s heroine’s welcome.
Also: Democratic Unionists attack Corbyn for backing IRA as it murdered judges; and growing concern of risk of loyalist violence against backstop.
It would also be dishonest to claim that the thought of voting Liberal Democrat did not flicker momentarily as we’ve veered towards knuckle-head, pound-shop Orbanism.
In the end, it may well prefer to hold out for a general election – and the likelihood of a Brexit delay – in the hope that something better turns up.